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When we discuss the federal budget, we often talk in numbers far removed from everyday experiences. For most people, millions, billions, and trillions are abstract concepts. That helps explain why many believe a million is roughly halfway between a thousand and a billion.1 Of course, a billion is a thousand times larger than a million; a trillion a thousand times larger than a billion. We’re not built to grasp differences of that scale.
But the difference matters. When policymakers propose spending increases or tax changes measured in the hundreds of billions or trillions, the levels lose all meaning without a sense of scale.
In our last two Plot Points, we focused on the trillion-dollar federal programs: Social Security and Medicare. Combined, they are expected to cost $2.74 trillion in 2026.2 No other federal program (not even defense) is above $1 trillion in annual spending.3 How can we make sense of this unprecedented spending and how can we compare it to the rest of the budget?
The plot
This week’s Plot Points sets aside the abstract billions and trillions and focuses on “Social Security and Medicare days.” In 2026, Social Security and Medicare benefits will cost about $7.5 billion per day. How many days of Social Security and Medicare spending would it take to fund major government programs?
The chart shows major budget functions and subfunctions, excluding Social Security and Medicare. Based on Congressional Budget Office projections, it would take about 126 days of Social Security and Medicare spending—just over four months—to cover all national defense outlays. If the Pentagon secures its proposed $200 billion supplemental appropriation for a war in Iran, that total would rise by 27 days.
The more revealing comparisons come farther down the chart. Many programs that dominate political debate amount to just days or weeks in this framework. Social Security and Medicare spend the entire State Department and international affairs budget in about 6 days. Transportation spending would take roughly 20 days, with Amtrak’s budget spent by Social Security and Medicare in just eight hours.4
The point
The plot is not an argument for shifting dollars toward programs measured in days or hours. Nor does it imply that policymakers should simply cut Social Security and Medicare benefits. The point is more basic: putting the federal budget on a sustainable path requires a clear understanding of where the money is going.
Last year, we ran a nationwide survey about the state of the federal budget. More than three-quarters of Americans agreed that the debt is growing at an unsustainable pace and that reducing the deficit should be a priority. Yet fewer than one in five knew that Social Security is the largest line item in the budget. More than twice as many believed it was defense spending, and about one-sixth pointed to foreign aid.
That misunderstanding is the problem. With the largest programs left out of the budget debate, we’re left focusing on the smaller ones that cannot materially change the nation’s fiscal outlook. Knowing where the money goes does not dictate any single policy solution, but meaningful progress on restraining deficits will require engaging with the biggest parts of the budget.
Further reading
Finding ways to set Social Security and Medicare on more sustainable footing is paramount if we are to protect current and future generations. The days are adding up, and each day we wait leaves policymakers with fewer options to avoid insolvent trust funds, tax hikes, and draconian benefit cuts. To that end, the Hoover Institution’s Fiscal Policy Initiative and its Healthcare Policy Working Group are developing rigorous, research-based policy solutions to meet the nation’s budget challenges.
One could argue that respondents are thinking logarithmically: one thousand is 103, one billion is 109, so halfway would be 106 or one million. There is some evidence that children think this way rather than linearly. For example, when asked what number is halfway between 1 and 9, many young children answer 3. This has nothing to do with the federal budget or this Plot Points. We just find it interesting.
This includes discretionary spending on Social Security and Medicare. This is actually an underestimate as we are only including net outlays for Medicare (i.e., excluding offsetting receipts from Medicare premiums). Including all Medicare expenditures would bring the total to $2.95 trillion.
Interest payments are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026.
Congress provided Amtrak with $2.4 billion in FY2026 budget authority—the actual amount Amtrak spends (i.e., its outlays) for the fiscal year will be slightly different.
Daniel Heil is a policy fellow at the Hoover Institution whose focus is on the federal budget, tax policy, and the federal antipoverty programs. He participates in Hoover’s Healthcare Policy Working Group and Fiscal Policy Initiative.
Tom Church is a policy fellow at the Hoover Institution. He studies health care policy, entitlement reform, income inequality, poverty, and the federal budget. He and Daniel Heil are co-authors of “Choices for All,” a set of commonsense health care reforms. He participates in Hoover’s Healthcare Policy Working Group, Fiscal Policy Initiative, and Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy.