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Recorded April 3, 2026
In this episode of China Considered: Quick Takes, Elizabeth Economy examines how China is assessing the war in Iran (now in a fragile ceasefire)—and why Beijing’s response reveals more than its official statements suggest. While China has publicly condemned US and Israeli strikes and reaffirmed its ties to Iran, Economy shows that the more important story lies behind the scenes, where Chinese analysts are debating what the conflict means for American credibility, military power, and the broader strategic balance.
Economy argues that the war is being read in Beijing through several competing lenses: as evidence of US strategic overreach, as a reminder of enduring American military superiority, and as a test of how instability affects China’s own interests. Iran matters to China not only as an energy supplier and strategic partner, but also as part of a wider network of relationships Beijing sees as central to its global position. At the same time, China is seeking to convert turmoil into advantage—criticizing the conflict diplomatically while continuing to expand its position elsewhere, including in the South China Sea. Together, these dynamics offer a revealing window into how Beijing interprets crisis and where it believes strategic opportunity lies.
Transcript
Welcome to another episode of China Considered Quick Takes. I’m Liz Economy, Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Today, I want to talk about how China is looking at the war in Iran. Officially, of course, China has condemned US and Israeli attacks against Iran as a violation of international law. Iran is an important strategic partner for China. It provides China with about 14% of its oil. It gives China a perch in the Middle East. China and Iran undertake joint military exercises together. And of course, both countries provide material support to Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Behind the scenes, however, Chinese foreign policy analysts have expressed a wide array of views regarding the broader strategic implications of the war. One perspective is that the war represents US strategic overreach, that the United States vastly underestimated Iran’s resilience while overestimating US political will, military assets, and international support.
In this view, the United States is losing credibility globally, not only because it hasn’t articulated a clear endgame, but also because it is once again mired in a Middle East war, despite having said that its priorities were the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific.
A second line of thinking, which was more prevalent in mid-March, is that the United States has once again demonstrated that it has the greatest military power on earth. Many Chinese analysts saw the early strikes against Iran as evidence of superior military and intelligence capabilities. I think the subtext to this view is that the popular Chinese government narrative that the East is rising and the West is declining may need to be amended.
Finally, there are those who think primarily about how the war affects China. As Zoe Lou noted in her terrific Foreign Affairs piece in late March, the Chinese leadership is very unhappy about how the disorder and upheaval have affected the international system.
Other Chinese analysts focused on what they believe is a targeted effort by the United States to go after Chinese partners: first Panama, then Venezuela, and now Iran, in an effort to undermine Chinese global standing and influence.
But as I look at the situation right now, I think Beijing is playing it smart. Within the United Nations, it is not only condemning the United States and Israel, it is also criticizing Iran for its attacks against the Gulf States and for its disruption of shipping. And it has proposed a five-point peace plan with Pakistan that has been well-received.
Never one to miss a strategic opportunity, far, far away from the chaos of the Middle East, Chinese construction firms are also busy building new military facilities on yet another reef in the South China Sea.
I think the tagline for Beijing’s strategy is: “We don’t need to win the war; we only need to win from it.”
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Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Named by Politico as among “the ten names that matter in China policy,” Economy served as senior adviser for China in the US Department of Commerce in 2021–23 and is the author of several influential books on Chinese politics and policy, most recently The World According to China.