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On the latest episode of GoodFellows, senior fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson, moderated as always by distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, speak with their colleague Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann.
Freymann directs Hoover’s Allied Coordination Working Group and is the author of, most recently, Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China (Oxford, 2026) and The Arsenal of Democracy: Technology, Industry, and Deterrence in an Age of Hard Choices (Hoover, 2025).
The conversation explores the recent state visit by Xi Jinping to Washington, DC and the current state of US-China relations amid ongoing friction over trade, cyber attacks, and the status of Taiwan. It’s a very timely conversation, so read on for more highlights.
Quote of the Day
Eyck Freymann explains why applying arms control logic to artificial intelligence is harder than it might first sound:
When it comes to AI arms control, verification is extremely hard. These are not nuclear weapons we’re talking about, big bulky things that you can see from space and you can count. These are capabilities that can be easily copied and hidden and dispersed. And I think until we solve this verification problem, it’s going to be very difficult for either side to trust each other, and therefore they will try to pace the frontier as best they can.
The Central Issue: China, Taiwan, and AI Safety in the Gray Zone
John Cochrane explains what “AI safety” means to the Chinese Communist Party:
From the Chinese [government’s] point of view, what matters is not humanity, it’s the survival of the Chinese Communist Party, which comes first. And they are, I think, “nailing jello” to the wall. [A reference to President Clinton once stating that regulating the internet is like trying to nail this soft snack to the wall.] When China thinks about AI safety, I think the number one thing [on their minds] is: What happens when you type in, “Tell me about Tiananmen Square“? Now, they’ve been good about being able to stop the internet from doing that, but AI is much harder to reign in from doing that and maintain its usefulness. I’m sure they’re trying hard.
Eyck Freymann elaborates on what he means by Chinese “gray zone” operations against Taiwan, and how they exist on a spectrum:
The gray zone is essentially an all domain pressure campaign, everything from harassing Taiwan nationals when they’re out of the country to pressuring businesses not to list Taiwan separately on their websites, to large scale cyber attacks or cutting of undersea cables, to maintaining a [Chinese] Coast Guard presence around Taiwan and radioing into ships asking what they’ve got on board. That’s essentially what is happening right now, but the gray zone pressure is intensifying and it’s accelerating from all directions at once. And if we play forward the tape, I think the way that it goes is towards something that [Senior Fellow] Philip Zelikow and others have called a quarantine, where essentially China says, “Taiwan Island is subject to our customs control. Sure, you can come and go, but you have to do it pursuant to Chinese law,” which is to say, “If we don’t want you coming and going, you don’t go.”
Key Takeaways
What’s going on in Ukraine?
Niall Ferguson shares some sobering insights from his recent visit:
“The war’s changed. Each year it’s been different. There was a time when it seemed like the Russians had resorted to terror bombing. That was last year when they were literally firing ballistic missiles at apartment blocks. That has changed since Ukraine began its deep strikes against Russian oil refineries. Putin changed his tactics and his technology. He started to target economically significant hubs, not just energy infrastructure. He’s been doing that since the war began, but also commercial hubs, factories. He struck steel factories just in the last 48 hours with very well-targeted missiles, and the technology’s changed too. The Ukrainians had worked out how to intercept the Shahed drones based on an Iranian design, but since they fitted them with jet engines, the Russians have essentially been able to break through Ukraine’s air defenses. Ukraine has no patriots, it can’t intercept the missiles, and now it can’t shoot down the drones. And so although Ukraine has been hitting very hard against Russia, the relative economic damage that Russia is inflicting on Ukraine is much greater, and this is going to become a major problem as winter approaches.”
Is there any chance that Putin makes a deal to end his war against Ukraine?
Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster analyzes whether Vladimir Putin is likely to take a deal with a shape similar to the proposal recently floated by US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. As he explains:
“I think he [Putin] might have to take the deal. . . What if this intensified campaign against energy infrastructure combined with a broad range of aggressive actions against other European nations, this Leipzig attack, as you mentioned, is jaw-dropping in terms of how brazen it was, the attacks on the mold of a border post, the overflights into Bulgaria now, the previous actions of cutting undersea cables, blowing up warehouses, the list goes on and on. What if this is the equivalent of the Ludendorff offensive in April of 1918 when Germany’s back really was against the wall? It was an offensive that failed. And of course, the big factor after that was US entry into the war, which isn’t going to happen. But Putin during this election that he just completed, the so-called election, was really worried. He got rid of the last political party that had the temerity to oppose the war in any way. He’s facing potentially a large conscription decision here, which could be the last straw.“
Recommended Reading
Niall Ferguson recommends Defending Taiwan: A Strategy To Prevent War With China by Eyck Freymann.
John Cochrane recommends Niall Ferguson’s recent piece in The Free Press discussing his latest trip to Ukraine.
Parting Wisdom
Niall Ferguson offers a succinct appraisal of the problem facing the Republican Party ahead of the November midterms:
The voters care about affordability. That’s the main problem Republicans have going into these midterms and [if you’re in their position] you’ve just got to change the subject. That’s what [President Trump is] doing.
That wraps up this GoodFellows conversation guide. If you like this companion to the show, or have any recommendations for future conversation guides, please let us know in the comments below.
John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. An economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics, he is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. He also authors a popular Substack called The Grumpy Economist.
Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of sixteen books, including The Ascent of Money, Civilization, and Doom; columnist with the Free Press; founder of Greenmantle; and co-founder of the University of Austin.
H. R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University and distinguished visiting fellow at Arizona State University. He is author of the bestselling books Dereliction of Duty, Battlegrounds, and At War With Ourselves.