Powered by 
On the latest episode of GoodFellows, Senior Fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson, as well as moderator and Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen, discuss three timely news topics: the Trump administration’s tariff policies in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling striking down their first legal basis; the fallout from the Epstein scandal in UK politics; and the possibility of US strikes against Iran in the near future.
This conversation guide highlights some of the key takeaways from the GoodFellows’ analysis of these recent international news items.
Quote of the Day
Former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster on the quandary Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior regime figures have placed themselves in:
They’ve defined their regime based on [a] kind of permanent hostility to the great Satan, Israel, who they call the “cancerous boil”—and as well as hostility toward [their] Arab neighbors. So I think we’re on a collision course here. I really do. I don’t think that there’s going to be any kind of a negotiated reprieve for the Iranians.
The Central Issue: Will the US Strike Iran?
Niall Ferguson: “It’s fascinating to think about the coming conflict. Many people doubted last year that there would be air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities. There are people who still seem to doubt that the president is resolved to take action, but let’s not forget that this regime slaughtered somewhere between 30 and 40,000 of its own people and that President Trump said that help was on its way. It couldn’t immediately be delivered because, as H.R. knows, the assets that are necessary for a fully dominant and effective campaign against the Iranian regime take time to assemble, but they are now in place—a formidable array of military force, of naval force is in place.“
Key Takeaways
What Would Be the Goal of a US Strike on Iran?
Niall Ferguson says that the recent US operation in Venezuela offers clues: “I think the goal, as in Venezuela in January, is regime alteration—I’ll use that term to define it differently from regime change. This is not 2003 Iraq. This is something that aims. . . not to change the character of the regime, not to create a liberal democracy, but to get rid of the leader, decapitate [the regime] and replace it with a leader that [is] willing to see Washington, rather than Beijing, as its master. That’s been done in Venezuela. I think it’s the goal here.“
But John Cochrane still has questions: “What is the final objective? Are we playing one more round of whack-a-mole? Are we going for regime change in a way that frees up the Iranian people from the horrendous things they’ve been living under, as H.R. pointed out? Or are we going to go for what seems to be the currently popular third way: changing who’s in charge, but fundamentally. . . leaving the IRGC, all the forces of evil [suggesting] that you can harm your own people all you want so long as you do what we say internationally? I’m like H.R., I’m offended by letting that [repressive system] stay.”
When is a Strike Likely?
Bill Whalen asks if, by the time the next GoodFellows episode is taped around two weeks from now, the nation will be talking about an Iran deal or an Iran strike. H.R. McMaster says: “I think a strike, and I think what may precipitate it even sooner are the protests that are ongoing now, especially those at universities. There are 20 universities [at which] there are massive protests. The Basij [Iran’s volunteer paramilitary wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] [are] coming in, surreptitiously wielding batons [and] beating people. So I think that that [violence] may convince the President to act even sooner.“
Following a Supreme Court Defeat on Tariffs, Does President Trump Have a Tariff Strategy?
The “Grumpy Economist” John Cochrane finds: “The President has a tariff obsession and I think we’re going to see more of this so long as the President and his advisors who share this obsession keep insisting on shooting themselves in the foot and undoing some of the incredible economic tailwinds that they have otherwise given us with tariffs and a couple of other unwise things.”
Cochrane also emphasizes the legal issues that the tariff case raises: “We should mention the legal issue because it’s really important. As Niall mentioned, [Justice] Gorsuch’s concurrence was a beautiful piece of writing, including a lovely address to the American people saying, “Look, if you want this policy outcome, you may be disappointed. Go to Congress. . . Congress is supposed to do this stuff. [The Supreme Court is] not here to get things done quickly.” I’m not even beginning to do it justice. The line that the conservatives [on the Court] are just lackeys is now, definitively, I think one that Democrats will have to abandon.”
What Are the Implications of the Arrest of the Former Prince Andrew?
Resident Briton (and a Knight at that!) Sir Niall Ferguson suggests: “I don’t think it’s right to say the end of the monarchy is nigh. There is minimal to next to no Republican sentiment in the UK. The Queen, though she may have been involved in trying to cover up Andrew’s wrongdoing, is revered—and in fact, king Charles has made a very good start to his reign in the eyes of most people. So although it’s unquestionably a grave embarrassment, I don’t think it poses a threat to the monarchy. It poses a threat to the Andrew formerly known as Prince, who’s clearly been entirely disgraced—and it ain’t over.”
Recommended Reading
This week’s reading recommendations are courtesy of the late actor Robert Duvall, to whom the GoodFellows pay tribute during this episode.
Duvall, critical of the progressive political turn of the Oscars in recent years, recommended his fellow actors read the work of two eminent Hoover Institution Fellows:
H.R. McMaster also recommends a “fantastic” classic film featuring Duvall, Apocalypse Now, saying, “It’s a hell of a movie.”
Parting Wisdom
Are Aliens Real?
The GoodFellows close by considering the significance of recent remarks by President Obama stating that aliens are “real” but “not being kept at Area 51,” followed by President Trump announcing a move to disclose government records related to aliens and related phenomena.
Niall Ferguson repsonds: “I don’t know whether Obama was joking, whether President Trump sees a wonderful way to distract public attention from say, the Epstein files. I don’t know what’s going on here. My view has long been that the aliens are here, but we built them. The aliens we call artificial intelligence. AI really stands for alien intelligence. We’ve built an alternate form of intelligence. It’s in our midst. Those are the aliens we should be worried about. Not the little green men from outer space.”
And John Cochrane adds: “Obama said, when you look at the size and scale of the universe. . . It would be unimaginably improbable that there isn’t intelligent life out there. The other fact we know is, we haven’t seen them. What does that mean? It’s probable that interplanetary travel is impossible. Otherwise, they would’ve already gotten here. And if they got here, we would know it. So what’s going on? Obviously there’s some airplanes the Air Force doesn’t want us to know about. . . Maybe this will be a good place to move on to from the Epstein files.”
That wraps up this GoodFellows conversation guide. If you like this companion to the show, or have any recommendations for future conversation guides, please let us know in the comments below.
John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. An economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics, he is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. He also authors a popular Substack called The Grumpy Economist.
Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of sixteen books, including The Ascent of Money, Civilization, and Doom; columnist with the Free Press; founder of Greenmantle; and co-founder of the University of Austin.
H. R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University and distinguished visiting fellow at Arizona State University. He is author of the bestselling books Dereliction of Duty, Battlegrounds, and At War With Ourselves.